CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID Tue 27 Dec 06:00 - Wed 28 Dec 06:00 2005 (UTC)
ISSUED: 27 Dec 01:04 (UTC)
FORECASTER: VAN DER VELDE

Thunderstorms are forecast across the southern North Sea, portions of the Mediterranean, Adriatic, Ionean and Aegean Sea

SYNOPSIS

The center of a large upper low moves from Germany southwestward into France. Near the surface, an easterly flow advecting cold and stable conditions into western Europe between high pressure over Scandinavia and low pressure over Italy, with warm air advection over southeastern Europe.

DISCUSSION

...southern North Sea...
Strong low-level buoyancy forecast by GFS 18Z and quiescent kinematic conditions may allow an isolated waterspout to form. Convection may produce some thunder, as equilibrium levels reach even over the -30C level, but no strong organisation is expected.

...other areas...
Weak shear and relatively warm convective cloud tops don't produce much organized thunder and probably no severe weather, except possibly a very isolated waterspout.

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